Politics & Government

With Mitt Romney Down in Iowa Polls, Influential Republicans Look to Oct. 3 Debate

Our Red Iowa survey shows GOP leaders are banking on Romney to improve his campaign at the debate in Denver. Iowa is among a handful of swing states.

Influential Iowa Republicans are confident Mitt Romney can still capture Iowa in the coming election, but they are looking toward the Oct. 3 presidential debate to reverse a steady tide of polls that show President Obama ahead in this small, but important, swing state.

Downplaying the importance of coming debates is typical among party insiders, but fully half of the 32 Republicans who took part in Patch’s Red Iowa survey said they believe Romney’s chances of winning Iowa will depend largely on a good opening debate performance.

“I think that reflects worry,” said Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines. “Whether the debates actually succeed in doing anything positive for Romney, the fact is that they really need something good to happen to change the trajectory of this campaign.”

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While much of the political world has focused on big-prize states such as Ohio and Florida, the importance of the smaller swing states and Iowa's six electoral votes has been underlined by the stream of visits by President Obama, Romney and their surrogates -- and by more than $30 million in political advertising already spent in the state.

Early voting in Iowa begins tomorrow.

The 32 Republicans responding to the Red Iowa survey are a mix of current and former office holders, party leaders, candidates and activists. The survey was inspired by academic research showing that endorsements by party "actors" at all levels — officeholders, party officials and local activists — are a critical leading indicator of primary presidential elections.

While the number of those surveyed is relatively small compared to scientific polling, this is the same group that correctly predicted Newt Gingrich’s rise and fall in Iowa prior to the state’s January caucuses, and who did so long before polls reflected his standing.

The word cloud that accompanies this story illustrates just how important our Red Iowans view the opening debate. Respondents were asked to describe, in one word, the importance of a strong debate performance by Romney. The more frequently a word was mentioned, the larger it appears.

Still, the Republicans surveyed are somewhat confident of Romney’s chances in Iowa despite recent polls.

While a Rasmussen poll puts Romney ahead by 3 points, a combined average of several polls tracked by The Huffington Post gives the president a 4.6 percent lead. That includes an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, which shows Obama ahead by 8 points, and an ARG Poll, that puts the president’s lead at 7 percent.

“Romney will do better in Iowa than the current polling suggests,” one respondent said. “One problem for Romney is that no matter how good he does in the debates, the media narrative will never be he won and Obama was dismal.”

The influential Republicans surveyed had mixed views on Romney’s “47 percent problem.” Almost 55 percent of those surveyed said they strongly disagreed that his chances in Iowa have been damaged by his taped comments about nearly half of Americans feeling like victims. Almost 20 percent somewhat agreed that he had hurt his chances in the state, and the remainder somewhat disagreed.

“Mitt needs to come out on the offensive, very strongly debating the case for a limited and free-market system of government,” wrote one respondent. “He also must act like he wants the job of president!”

Find out what's happening in Waukeewith free, real-time updates from Patch.

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Participants in Red Iowa and Blue Iowa are noted, but their answers are kept confidential. If you’d like to take part in either survey, contact Iowa Regional Editor Todd Richissin at todd.richissin@patch.com.

Red Iowa Roster: State Sen. Jack Whitver, Randy Munson, Amanda Freel, Steve Boal, State Rep. Kevin Koester, Carmine Boal, Rick Hermann, Wade Steenhoek, Skye Alison, Mike St. Clair, Jeremy Davis, Cory Adams, Chad Steenhoek, Rick Sanders, Ronald Stenstrom, Mike Nolan, Marilyn Krocheski, Karen Svede, Paul Fell, James Wilson, Dusty Juhl, Elizabeth Kuennen, Robert White, Jeff Angelo, George Forbes, Darrow Uhlenhopp, Jacqui Norman, Ben Rittgers, Randy Yontz, Chad Airhart, Isaiah McGee, Shane Blanchard, Rob Taylor, Jon McAvoy, Mike Elam, Chris McLinden, Arleigh Clemens, Deb Thornton, Cynthia Michel, William Keettel, Natalie Ginty, Debra Derksen, Irene Chalmers-Neubauer, Roger Anderson, Leah Adams, Tim Hagle, Jim Sandager, Polk County Supervisor Robert Brownell, Charles Schneider, Mary Kramer, Jim Aipperspach, Steve Gaer, Eric Woolson, Gregory Hudson, Gary Kirke, Westside Conservative Club Founder Paul Zietlow, State Rep. Scott Raecker, Jacob Chapman, Jill Ellsworth, Polk County Supervisor E.J. Giovannetti, Paula Dierenfeld, Urbandale City Councilman Creighton Cox, Andy Christenson, Connie Schmett, Will Rogers, Matt Nolan, Paul French, Kathy French, Judd Saul, Greg Tagtow, Mac McDonald.


 


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