Blue Iowa Survey: State Democrats Overwhelmingly Confident Obama Will Take Iowa
Our inaugural Blue Iowa survey also shows a bit of concern that Obama 2012 can pick up Iowa's independent voters in the same proportion as 2008.
After months of largely sitting on the sidelines as the fight for the GOP presidential nomination was waged, Iowa's influential Democrats are professing overwhelming confidence that President Obama will win the state in November's election.
That's the main finding of the inaugural Blue Iowa survey conducted by Iowa Patches among influential party leaders in the state that set Obama on his way to the Democratic nomination -- and then the presidency -- in 2008.
More than 97 percent of those surveyed agreed with the statement, "I am confident President Obama will win Iowa over Mitt Romney in November." Of those who agreed, more than 55 percent agreed completey and more than 41 percent agreed somewhat.
The survey showed some concern, though, however slight, of Obama's ability to turn out Democrats and independents in numbers that at least equal those who voted for him against Sen. John McCain in 2008.
About 87 perecent of the 36 influential state Democrats who took part in the survey completely agreed that Obama would capture at least as many registered Democrats.
As for independents, the respondents were more tepid, with only about 81 percent completely or somewhat confident that independents would show for the president in the same numbers as 2008.
Iowa is a crucial swing state heading into November's election, with its six electoral votes a key piece of both candidates' election strategy.
Obama trounced Sen. John McCain in the 2008 election, 54 percent to 45 percent, but the state went to George W. Bush in 2004 by only about 12,000 votes.
With an eye toward voter-registration polls, Democrats have been scrambling to sign up voters. With an energetic primary in 2008, Democrats held a substantial lead among registered voters.
With this year's Iowa caucuses so closely fought, though, Republicans edged Democrats on the registration rosters for the first time in six years, as of April.
The 36 Democrats responding to the Blue Iowa survey are a mix of current and former office holders, party leaders, candidates and activists. The survey was inspired by academic research that showed endorsements by party "actors" at all levels are a critical leading indicator of primary presidential elections.
Blue Iowa looks at the mood of influential Democrats as campaigning for the general election heats up.
As illustrated in the word cloud provided, our survey also showed Democrats generally are happy with Obama's performance in office. Asked to provide one word to describe Obama's term, all but seven offered decidedly favorable terms. Two were negative and five answered with words considered neutral, such as "moderate" and "challenged."
You can see our inaugural Red Iowa survey of influential Republicans here. If you'd like to take part in either survey, contact Iowa Regional Editor Todd Richissin at email@example.com.
Those who agree to take part in the survey are noted below, but individual answers are kept confidential.
Jan Bauer, Abishek Vemuri, Beth Wessel Krochell, Wayne Clinton, Tom Beell, Jim Gaunt, Ethan Fredricke, Don Zuck, Bob Kressig, Jeff Danielson, Pat Sass, Don Page, Pam Gross, Tavis Hall, Sally Browne, Roger White, Terry Dahms, Sarah Swisher, Katherine Valde, Mike Carbrerry, Caroline Dieterle, Scott Syroka, Virginia Soelberg, Marcia Nichols, Judy Anderson, Tom Leffler, Bill Unger, Pat Walters, Mari Hall, George Lake, Seth Moomey, Amber Mussman, Cody Crawford, Jan McCool, Mary Polson, Dan Cataldi, Kris Winters, Mike Newell, Rick Smith, Carl Johnson, Gail Kotoval, David Leonard, Julie Zeisman, Eric Brenneman, Sue Ellen Kennedy, Joe Shanahan, Laurie Belin, Saundra Ragona, Kathi Phillips, Karen Moriarity.